Iran Nuclear Agreement: Is It a
Done Deal?
Despite the fanfare about reaching a framework on Nuclear Agreement, there appears to be a big gap in the perception of what was actually
agreed to.
Edited by: KANWAL ABIDI ( 063 News - Press Agency )
Journalist & Political Analyst
..........................................................................................................
After months of intensive negotiations between the P5+1 and
Iran, EU Foreign Policy Chief Frederica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign Minister
Javad Zarif, amid much media fanfare, announced a joint statement of principles
outlining the agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear program.
The announcement was followed by a
statement by President Obama framing the agreement as a victory for sanctions
and diplomacy. Despite the announcement of the agreement and the subsequent
celebrations and recriminations, it remains clear that a lot of hard work,
difficult bargaining over details and political arm twisting and horse trading
will be required before the June 30 deadline for the final agreement.
The U.S. and its allies on the P5+1,
having long since abandoned the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT)
principles to “allow and inspect” and having focused on a policy to “deny and
punish,” have insisted on a one-year “breakout time to a nuclear weapon,” a
nebulous concept subject to much debate and interpretation.
They never have acknowledged Iran’s
right to a peaceful nuclear program; a right which has been the cornerstone of
the Iranian negotiating position.
In line with this position, Iran has
insisted that they are unwilling to make what they call “irreversible change”
to their nuclear infrastructure in return for a “suspension” of sanctions. They
want the sanctions “lifted.” Given the long history of “double dealing” by the
western powers, Iran does not have a lot of trust that it won’t happen again as
the stated position of the U.S. with respect to Iran is “regime change.”
Shortly after the announcement of
the agreement, the U.S. State Department issued a “fact sheet” apparently designed to spin the agreement for domestic
consumption.
The release contains a series of
bullet points that purport to explain what has been agreed to.
While many of the points regarding
Iran’s obligations reflect the joint announcement, in the area of the lifting
of sanctions there appears to be a wide gap. Foreign Minister Zarif immediately
tweeted: “The solutions are good for all, as they stand. There is no need to spin
using ‘fact sheets’ so early on.”
With regard to sanctions the joint
announcement says, “The European Union
will terminate the implementation of all nuclear-related economic and
financial sanctions and the United
States will cease the application of all nuclear-related secondary
economic and financial sanctions simultaneously with the IAEA-verified
implementation by Iran of its key nuclear commitments."
"A new UN Security Council
resolution will endorse the JCPOA, terminate all previous nuclear-related
resolutions, and incorporate certain restrictive measures for a mutually agreed
period of time.”
The
State Department fact sheet says,
·
Iran will receive sanctions relief,
if it verifiably abides by its commitments.
·
S. and E.U. nuclear-related
sanctions will be suspended after the IAEA has verified that Iran has taken all
of its key nuclear-related steps. If at any time Iran fails to fulfill its
commitments, these sanctions will snap back into place.
·
The architecture of U.S.
nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will be retained for much of the duration of
the deal and allow for snap-back of sanctions in the event of significant
non-performance.
·
All past UN Security Council
resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous (sic) with
the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions addressing all key concerns
(enrichment, Fordow, Arak, PMD, and transparency).
·
However, core provisions in the UN
Security Council resolutions – those that deal with transfers of sensitive
technologies and activities – will be re-established by a new UN Security
Council resolution that will endorse the JCPOA and urge its full implementation.
It will also create the procurement channel mentioned above, which will serve
as a key transparency measure. Important restrictions on conventional arms and
ballistic missiles, as well as provisions that allow for related cargo
inspections and asset freezes, will also be incorporated by this new
resolution. (063 news)
Twitter Update on Iran Nuke Deal:
Zarif’s Twitter reaction to this was “Iran/5+1 Statement: ‘US will cease
the application of ALL nuclear-related secondary economic and financial
sanctions.’ Is this gradual?” and “Iran/P5+1 Statement: ‘The EU will TERMINATE
the implementation of ALL nuclear-related economic and financial sanctions’ How
about this?” (Original emphasis.)
There appears to be a big gap in the
perception of what was agreed to. The U.S. appears to be saying one thing to
its negotiating partners and another to its domestic constituencies. Not a
recipe for success. We may have a long way to go.
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